17 March 2023
With one week to go before the March 25 NSW state election, local Liberal MPs are fighting a rear-guard action to shore up their support base in the face of twin challenges from an ascendant Labor and the independent movement.
With NSW Labor placing well against the Coalition at a state-wide level in polls, there are strong expectations of swings to Willoughby candidate Sarah Griffin and North Shore candidate Godfrey Santer. Also presenting a strong challenge to the Liberal incumbents are high-profile Willoughby independent Larissa Penn and North Shore challengers Helen Conway and Victoria Walker. Adding to the contest is a spritely campaign from the Greens’ James Mullan.
In North Shore, which covers the Mosman LGA and most of North Sydney LGA south of Falcon St and Military Road, sitting Liberal MP Felicity Wilson is defending a 61-39% margin.
As in 2019, Wilson is facing challengers from both independents and the Greens and Labor.
In that election, independent Carolyn Corrigan placed second with around 9,000 primaries but only scored about 6,000 preferences from the eliminated candidates to end up with 15,000 votes, way short of Wilson’s 21,000.
Teal-backed independent Helen Conway is regarded as the main challenger this time, but her immediate goal is to score more primaries than Labor and the Greens, and attempt to score enough of their preferences to close the gap on the Liberals. Her task has been assisted by the decision of both the Greens and Labor to give her their second preference, and not without some rancour from party members in the case of the latter, who lament that the independent isn’t returning the favour and isn’t entitled to favouritism.
STRONG LABOR POLLING: Labor polled strongly in a published opinion survey late last year—at 29% of the vote—with an unnamed independent scoring 23%. A new Climate 200 poll, reported in the Daily Telegraph but unseen but the Sun, had Labor sliding back to 17% and the independent, now named as Conway, on 18%. Conway likely needs to lift to at least 6,000 votes or 12% behind Wilson’s primary, at worst, to be assured of enough preferences to overtake her, assuming she pulls ahead of Labor which is not a given. Another independent, Victoria Walker, is also running on a similar set of values and policies, which further complicates the picture for Conway’s trajectory.
Wilson has received a boost with the decision of intending independent candidate and former Mosman mayor Simon Menzies not to run.
Menzies had earlier indicated an intention to run on a pro-Beaches Link tunnel platform, in protest against the government’s decision to put its construction on hold.
This will help Wilson’s support in Mosman where the tunnel is popular and Menzies is well-known.
TIGHT IN WILLOUGHBY: In Willoughby, Tim James is defending one of the Liberals’ most vulnerable seats with just a 53-47% margin, following a massive swing of 20% against the party last year following the resignation of Gladys Berejiklian.
Independent Larissa Penn nearly ran James down last time but her path is made more complicated by the presence of a Labor candidate this time, who will dilute the non-Liberal vote. Labor traditionally gets a solid 15% vote in the seat, and within living memory, even won it during the Wranslide years of the late 1970s. This makes Penn’s task harder as many of the votes from eliminated candidates will exhaust and deny her preferences.
The Teals are standing out of Penn’s way, but some of the politically-experienced Real Independents’ group, who control North Sydney Council in alliance with Labor and the Sustainable Australia Party, are actively working to support her.
Across both seats it appears that cost of living is the biggest issue but that has not been reflected in the tenor of the campaigns against the incumbents, which have mostly focused on climate issues and integrity.
North Shore’s Wilson has campaigned mainly on the funding she has been able to secure for the area, ranging from school upgrades, to the development of green spaces at Berry’s Bay and a range of other recreational initiatives such a new playground for teenagers in St Leonards Park. Wilson’s two big signature promises are major upgrades at North Sydney Oval and the development of a High Line at Lavender Bay. She has also promised a new ambulance station at Cremorne.
Prepolling begins Saturday March 18.
Locations for North Shore can be found here: https://elections.nsw.gov.au/district-profiles/north-shore
Locations for Willoughby can be found here: https://elections.nsw.gov.au/district-profiles/willoughby