Real Independents, Labor maintain control of NS Council following election

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14 September 2024

North Sydney Council mayor Zoe Baker looks set to return as mayor for another term. Her Real Independents and Labor allies swept to victory in last Saturday’s election as they capitalised on the absence of organised competition from the Liberals in half the electorate.

Leveraging the absence of Liberal competition in the northern St Leonards Ward, Zoe Baker’s Real Independents scored an incredible 2.75 quotas, guaranteeing them two and possibly three councillors. Independent James Spenceley scored 1.54 quotas, Labor 1.06 quotas, and the Sustainable Australia Party 0.61 of a quota. At first glance, the Real Independents should pick up three spots, but Baker’s high personal vote may result in substantial below-the-line votes which won’t directly transfer to the rest of her ticket.

The key integer to watch for the last councillor position is the quota after the decimal point: presently placing the RI on .75, Spenceley on .49 and SAP on 0.61. These could change considerably as below the line and pre poll votes are added.

The initial informal votes looks high at over 16% but apparently this includes below-the-line votes. They will be counted as formal votes in the second stage of the count.

In the southern Cammeraygal Ward, the Liberals showed the power of their brand, powering to 1.93 quotas, and all but certain to elect both Jessica Keen and Efi Carr as councillors. The Real Independents’ MaryAnn Beregi scored 1.05% of a quota, Labor’s Shannon Welch a fraction behind at 1.03 and the Greens’ Angus Hoy at 0.71 of a quota.

Again the informal votes were high, at around 13.35%. In the last 2021 poll, the informal vote was around 4%.

The three groups to miss out will be the Sustainable Australia Party (0.41 of a quota), Community 1st’s Peter Noble (0.46) and Team Jilly’s Pallavi Sinha (0.41).

The current likely makeup of the council will be:

St Leonards
Zoe Baker (RI)
James Spenceley (Ind)
Godfrey Santer (Lab)
Chris Holding (RI)
Nicole Antonini (RI), with Michael Want (SAP) and Dan Whitford (Ind) outside chances if votes for Zoe Baker do not carry down the ticket.

Cammeraygal
Jessica Keen (Lib)
MaryAnn Beregi (RI)
Shannon Welch (Lab)
Efi Carr (Lib)
Angus Hoy (Greens)

There will be considerable retributions on the centre-right of local politics in coming days, with the two independent Liberals Peter Noble and Pallavi Sinha doing poorly and the absence of any Liberal-connected choice in St Leonards ward. While there were late attempts to frame the dominant incumbent groups of the Real Independents and Labor as being excessively aligned at a time when State Labor is imposing a major development agenda on the LGA, these efforts appeared to have lacked sufficient cut-through and, in any case, were not being prosecuted by the Liberals themselves.

Zoe Baker is likely to have as many as seven of the ten votes required to continue as mayor from the new council and, at a minimum, five or six.

The count continues as postal votes continue to be collated.